COLUMBIA, S.C.
When former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley spoke Tuesday at her alma mater, it was only a matter of time before someone asked about her potential presidential ambitions.
It’s a question other presumed Republican presidential hopefuls have gotten in the last two years.
Haley didn’t announce a run for the White House Tuesday, but her stance has softened since last year when she said she would not seek the nomination if former President Donald Trump ran again.
“We are taking the holidays to kind of look at what the situation is,” the former South Carolina governor told the crowd. “If we decide to get into it, we’ll put 1,000% in, and we’ll finish it.”
Haley’s appearance at Clemson University is the latest example of a potential 2024 presidential candidate making the rounds in South Carolina, which holds the first in the South presidential primary. And the visits started well before the 2022 midterms.
Several potential candidates used high-profile conservative events to test messages for a run.
Coming to South Carolina early helps hopefuls increase their name recognition in the state. For those who ultimately decide to seek the White House, they’ll have to find support from a mix of social and fiscal conservatives.
The 2024 presidential race officially kicked off last month when Trump announced his candidacy. The former president may start in the lead, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll win the primary in South Carolina, where other potential candidates are also well known.
Winning the South Carolina primary is key. With the exception of Mitt Romney in 2012, the Palmetto State has voted for every Republican presidential nominee since 1980.
“It’s vitally important for presidential candidates to come to South Carolina and spend time talking to the grassroots of our state,” said Dave Wilson, president of the Palmetto Family Council. “You cannot get to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. without coming through South Carolina.”
Visits well under way
High-profile Republicans began testing the waters in South Carolina just months into Joe Biden’s presidency.
Former Vice President Mike Pence has made at least six stops in the state since 2021, with appearances at the Palmetto Family Council Dinner that April, and the Carolina Pregnancy Center annual gala and Columbia International University commencement ceremony in 2022, among others.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has visited the Palmetto State twice in that time, speaking at the S.C. GOP Silver Elephant Dinner in 2021, and U.S. Rep. Jeff Duncan’s Faith and Freedom Barbecue in 2022, where he said his decision on whether to run wouldn’t hinge on who else enters the race.
The year before Pompeo headlined the Faith and Freedom Barbecue, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem served as the keynote speaker.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott spoke at the S.C. Republican Party’s 2021 First in the South Conference in Myrtle Beach.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has attended two fundraisers in Charleston.
Haley has made visits around the state, speaking at Clemson, S.C. State University, the annual Army Engineer Association dinner in Columbia and even the South Carolina State House, to offer any assistance she could during the midterm elections.
U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who has said he would not get into the race if Trump runs, also has made appearances at the annual Duncan barbecue, the First in the South Republican convention, the 2022 Silver Elephant gala and even launched his own annual marquee event called Big Thursday.
Trump even held a rally in Florence back in March to campaign for now U.S. Rep.-elect Russell Fry and former state Rep. Katie Arrington, who lost her primary bid to unseat U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace in the 1st Congressional District.
“In order to gain a place on the battlefield of the political arena, you have to start staking out ground now,” Wilson said.
In 2023, potential candidates will have even more opportunities to speak in front of potential voters in the February 2024 South Carolina Republican primary, which will take place after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
The Palmetto Family Council is planning a Vision 24 forum in the Lowcountry in March where it will invite potential presidential hopefuls to speak. Duncan plans to have his annual barbecue in August.
The South Carolina Republican Party will hold a convention in May, its annual Silver Elephant Gala in July and a First in the South Republican Action Conference in the fall.
County conventions themselves likely will have potential candidates in attendance, said S.C. GOP Chairman Drew McKissick, who expects the race to be in full swing by summer.
“As you go forward, you have candidates and potential candidates who will begin to visit the state a lot more, will begin to try to find potential staff, begin to do hiring, meet with key activists, attend a lot of events,” McKissick said. “All of that will increase over the course of 2023.”
Who starts in the lead?
The presidential race already has one declared candidate: former President Trump.
It remains to be seen how soon other candidates officially jump in.
“The former president because of name recognition certainly starts with the pole position,” McKissick said. “He’s got a lot of support here in South Carolina.”
According to a Winthrop University poll conducted in May, Trump, who has the backing of Fry and Gov. Henry McMaster, had a 53% favorability rating in the state.
But those numbers may since have fallen, said Warren Tompkins, a longtime political consultant in South Carolina.
Tompkins said so many unknown variables remain in the race.
“What is his threshold going to be once people sit down and really focus on the primary itself and who is and (is) not in the race, what all is going on in Trump world, how he conducts his campaign and himself,” Tompkins said. “That will be a huge determining factor.”
If Haley or Scott, who both are well-liked in the Palmetto State, enter the race, it could change the dynamic of the South Carolina primary. Other candidates may steer clear of the state in that case, or if they’re within striking distance look to challenge the locals and score a knockout blow on their home turf, Tompkins said.
According to Winthrop’s May poll Haley has a 63% favorability rating in the state. The same poll found 50% of respondents approved of Scott’s handling of his job and 26% disapproved.
“They’re both immensely popular here,” Tompkins said.
Who are the voters
The Republican primary electorate encompasses a mix of conservative voters looking for their preferred candidate.
South Carolina has grown to more than 5 million people in recent years as transplants have moved to the state, and the interests of voters often vary by region.
The Upstate has religious conservatives who care about social issues. The coastal areas have economic conservatives. The state has a large military contingent that is concerned with foreign policy, Republican Party members said.
“It’s a good test for candidates in terms of different constituencies,” McKissick said.
Trump found a way to unite the conservative factions in his 2016 campaign.
“They’re a cross section of all of that,” Tompkins said. “It’s evangelical, it’s fiscal conservatives. People who have varying degrees of interest in what’s going on in foreign affairs. You’ve got a huge libertarian, anti-establishment strain in that bloc of voters. It’s a mishmash.”
Tompkins said roughly a dozen counties will be key in the GOP primary: Greenville, Spartanburg, Pickens, Oconee, Anderson, Lexington, Horry, Berkeley, Dorchester, Charleston, Beaufort, York and Aiken.
“Horry County has become one of the most important voting blocs in the Republican primary in South Carolina,” he said.
It may ultimately come down to how the candidates address issues of immigration, trade, taxes, law enforcement, abortion restrictions, the 2nd Amendment and judicial appointments, McKissick said.
“The issues that move Republicans as far back as the 2015-16 cycle going forward are still going to be key issues that move primary voters at this point in time,” McKissick said.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect Sen. Tim Scott’s approval rating from the Winthrop Poll in May.
This story was originally published December 04, 2022 5:00 AM.
